How to choose Masaniello parameters
Each combination of trades (N) and expected ITM (K) changes the cycle return and the probability of completing it. This guide compares several combinations with real numbers and explains the most important figure: the win rate you need to avoid losing money.
Updated on November 3, 2026
Return versus probability
Asking for more wins per trade (high K/N) gives more profitable cycles that are harder to complete. Asking for fewer gives safer cycles with less profit. The table shows combinations with an 86 % payout; the probability of completing the cycle is calculated for a real win rate of 50 % and 55 %.
| N / K | Return | Expected win rate | Cycle prob. (50 %) | Cycle prob. (55 %) | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 / 2 | 16.82% | 40% | 81.25% | 86.88% | 53.76% |
| 8 / 3 | 11.18% | 37.5% | 85.55% | 91.15% | 53.76% |
| 10 / 3 | 3.39% | 30% | 94.53% | 97.26% | 53.76% |
| 10 / 4 | 13.26% | 40% | 82.81% | 89.8% | 53.76% |
| 10 / 5 | 40.54% | 50% | 62.3% | 73.84% | 53.76% |
| 12 / 5 | 14.86% | 41.67% | 80.62% | 88.83% | 53.76% |
| 15 / 6 | 10.14% | 40% | 84.91% | 92.31% | 53.76% |
| 20 / 8 | 7.79% | 40% | 86.84% | 94.2% | 53.76% |
The key fact: break-even does not depend on N or K
Look at the last column: it is 53.76% for every combination. Masaniello spreads the risk, but it does not change the edge of each trade. If your real win rate is below that threshold you will lose money in the long run with any setup; above it, you will win with any.
A common mistake is to think that a 10-trade cycle with 4 ITM “only needs 40 % wins”. It is true that at 50 % wins you would complete the cycle more than 80 % of the time, but every lost cycle costs the whole capital and the profit of the winning cycles does not make up for it.
The broker payout sets the threshold
The break-even win rate is 1 / (1 + payout). The less the broker pays, the more you need to win:
| Payout | Return (10 / 4) | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 70 % | 6.84% | 58.82% |
| 80 % | 10.58% | 55.56% |
| 86 % | 13.26% | 53.76% |
| 92 % | 16.26% | 52.08% |
Practical recommendations
- Measure your real win rate over enough trades (a hundred or more) before using money.
- Choose a K / N somewhat below that win rate, to leave room for bad streaks.
- Prefer more trades per cycle for steadier cycles: the return drops, but you depend less on a short streak.
- Look for the best payout available: a few points of payout lower the break-even threshold more than any change to N and K.
- Use only part of your balance as cycle capital, because losing the cycle means losing all of it.