What is the Masaniello method
The Masaniello method is a money management system from Italy, widely used in sports betting and binary options. It does not try to predict results: it decides how much to stake on each trade so that, if you reach a set number of wins, the cycle always ends with the same profit.
Updated on November 3, 2026
The idea in one sentence
Before starting you set the maximum number of trades (N) and how many you expect to win (K). Masaniello spreads the risk so that any combination of K wins within those N trades leads to the same final balance, whether the wins come first, last or mixed with losses.
The four parameters of a cycle
- Cycle capital: the amount you assign to the cycle and that, in the worst case, you can lose entirely.
- Number of trades (N): the maximum number of trades in the cycle.
- Expected ITM (K): how many winning trades (ITM, in the money) you need to close the cycle successfully.
- Broker payout: the percentage paid on each winning trade. At 86 %, staking $10 and winning returns $18.60.
How each stake is calculated
The method builds a matrix with every possible state of the cycle: how many trades you have made and how many you have won. Each cell tells how much the capital must grow from that point to reach the target. Comparing what happens if you win or lose the next trade gives the exact fraction of the current capital to stake.
The result follows an easy pattern: after a loss the stake goes up, because fewer trades are left to recover, and after a win it goes down, because you are closer to the target.
Example: 10 trades, 4 ITM and 86 % payout
With $100 of capital, the cycle target is $113.26 (13.26%). This sequence mixes wins and losses:
| # | Result | Stake | Return | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lost | $7.77 | -$7.77 | $92.23 |
| 2 | Won | $11.20 | +$9.63 | $101.86 |
| 3 | Lost | $7.81 | -$7.81 | $94.05 |
| 4 | Lost | $12.07 | -$12.07 | $81.99 |
| 5 | Won | $17.40 | +$14.96 | $96.95 |
| 6 | Won | $12.94 | +$11.13 | $108.08 |
| 7 | Won | $6.02 | +$5.18 | $113.26 |
The fourth win comes on the seventh trade and the cycle ends at $113.26. If the four wins had come in a row at the start, the final balance would be exactly the same: $113.26.
When the cycle is lost
With N = 10 and K = 4 you can afford up to 6 losses. At that limit every remaining trade must be won, so the method stakes all the capital left. One more loss and the cycle is lost: the whole cycle capital is lost. That is why it should be only part of your total balance.
What the method does not do
Masaniello does not create an edge. With an 86 % payout you need to win more than 53.76% of your trades to make money in the long run, just as if you always staked the same amount. We show the numbers in how to choose the parameters.